Why a Losing Season Could Pay Off Big for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2026
The St. Louis Cardinals are staring at the harsh reality of another lost season. The standings don’t lie — missed opportunities, injuries, and inconsistency have left St. Louis in the middle of the pack instead of in the postseason hunt. And for a fan base used to October baseball, that’s a tough pill to swallow.
But here’s the twist: if the Cardinals lose in 2025, they could actually win big in the long run — with a lottery pick in the 2026 MLB Draft.
Yes, you read that right. According to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Cardinals are indeed eligible for a draft lottery selection next summer if they miss the playoffs. “The Cardinals are eligible for a lottery (top six pick) in 2026 if they do not make the playoffs,” Goold confirmed, after double-checking with MLB, the CBA, and the club itself.
Which means that while this season may feel like a wasted one, it could very well position the franchise for years of dominance ahead.
The Upside of the Downside
In MLB’s current structure, only the top six picks in the draft are considered true lottery selections. St. Louis has already brushed close to that magic line. Just last year, the Cards missed out by a single spot, landing at No. 7 — and that’s the pick that delivered JJ Wetherholt, now one of the top prospects in all of baseball.
So imagine what happens if the Cardinals cash in with a true top-six lottery pick in 2026. They could add an elite, franchise-changing talent to a farm system that’s already produced (producing) names like Masyn Winn, Jordan Walker, Nathan Church, Michael McGreevy, Quinn Mathews, Tink Hence, and, of course, Wetherholt.
It’s a reminder that losing now, while painful, can pay serious dividends later.
The Road Ahead
Here’s how it works: if the Cardinals miss the playoffs in 2025, they’ll be entered into the 2026 draft lottery. Land a pick in the top six, and they score big. Fall outside the lottery? Then St. Louis could be eligible again in 2027 if they once again miss October baseball.
The key detail: a team only loses eligibility after two consecutive years of actually winning a lottery pick. Since the Cardinals have not had back-to-back lottery selections, the door is wide open.
Why This Matters for the Cardinals
The reality is clear — the Cardinals need more top-end talent to return to perennial contention. They’ve already shown what one near-lottery pick can do with Wetherholt. Add another elite player into the mix, and suddenly the so-called “down years” look more like a setup for a dynasty.
So yes, losing hurts. But in baseball’s new draft era, it doesn’t have to be a disaster. For the Cardinals, the silver lining is obvious: stumble in 2025, and you could end up with the kind of lottery prize that turns frustration into future championships.
Because sometimes in baseball, the only way to win later… is to lose now. The Cards have always reloaded, not rebuilt. This process will not be short or painless, but lots of top 10 draft picks will only shorten the process and numb that pain.
